Ramifications

Obviously, the incident did quite a lot to strain relations between China and the United States. Exactly how far the damage will reach is as yet unknown. President Bush has already decided to defer selling the AEGIS destroyers to Taiwan, though he has decided to approve the sale of several obsolete American Kidd-class destroyers and diesel-powered submarines from the other NATO countries. That sale will most likely go through with little opposition from Congress, and it will certainly spark a great deal of rhetoric from Beijing.

In recent days, Bush has also remarked that he will honor the defense treaty between the United States and Taiwan, also to much Chinese chagrin. The question of whether a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will take place still looms, and while this recent statement will probably not start a war, it is impossible to say if it will prevent one. If the PRC can land troops on Taiwan, the island will certainly fall; but currently the PLAN lacks the capacity to transport an invasion force. Chinese shipyards will have to be closely watched for an increase in activity.

Several other matters also remain: China has applied for entry into the World Trade Organization and has submitted a bid to host the 2008 Summer Games. American support for these ventures, while not crucial, does carry a lot of weight in the international community. Has China sufficiently alienated the United States to lose those endorsements? China has also been accused of blatant human rights violations: government-forced abortions, and suppression of speech and religion top the list. Perhaps this aerial incident will bring about a harder-line stance on these issues in Washington.

In the long run, nothing will change in international relations solely because of the events of 1 April and what followed them. The incident instead can be seen merely as a catalyst, pushing complaints to the forefront and raising tensions. How the future will unfold will be a product not of this catalyst, but instead of the way world leaders react to each other and to the raised issues.

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Newspaper headlines in Hong Kong on 11 April.